setUoYouRPROFILE's blog: "tufui"

High anxiety has overtaken the United Nations,juicy couture outlet as Palestinians, Israelis, Americans and Europeans do an edge-walk around the most towering issue of the day, the Palestinian bid for statehood. And the brinksmanship seems set to continue until Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas appears at the world body in New York next week to announce whether he will abandon the bold move, or press it to a bruising conclusion. “We will see if anyone carries with him or her any credible offer,” Palestinian foreign minister Riad Malki told journalists from his headquarters in Ramallah. “Otherwise on (Sept. 23), at 12.30, the president will submit the application.” He said that the Palestinians would go for full statehood by seeking endorsement from the UN’s most powerful body, the Security Council – reaching for the top tier on the diplomatic ladder. A less lofty goal, the General Assembly’s recognition as a non-member observer state, is also a possibility. The Palestinians say they would return to talks with Israel if it froze settlement construction and accepted pre-1967 boundaries as a basis for a future agreement. But behind the scenes the bargaining continues, with the U.S. struggling to avoid what it calls a unilateral move that would derail an already-stalled peace process. It would bring a veto from Washington, and rising anger in the Arab world. Meanwhile, Germany and France and others in the financially troubled European Union are squabbling over opposing views on the Palestinian bid at a time when they most need to present a united front. But all those in the Middle Eastern power game are playing for high stakes. For Abbas, who lacks the street-fighter charisma of his predecessor Yasser Arafat, it’s a last ditch attempt at winning a historic victory, though one that might ultimately prove hollow. And it would give his Fatah faction a boost at the expense of rival Hamas, which controls Gaza. Abbas’s Palestinian Authority has called for mass demonstrations in the West Bank to support the statehood bid, and expectations on the ground are too high for him to easily walk away. “If (Abbas) were to postpone it . . . he would likely face a crippling domestic challenge by constituents who have long lost any faith in negotiations and to whom the leadership has built up the UN option for months,” says a report by the International Crisis Group. “Most Palestinians do not strongly support the UN bid; but they would strongly oppose a decision to retract it without suitable compensation.” Abbas is also under strong financial pressure from both Israel and the U.S. Congress. The former threatening to withhold tax revenues, the latter $450 million a year in aid. Both keep the rising Palestinian economy afloat, including an economic development plan created by Prime Minister Salam Fayyad, who opposes the statehood bid. The stakes for Israel, too, have seldom been higher, as more wide-ranging threats by Israeli politicians make clear. They’ve warned of new annexation of Palestinian territory, including settlements in the Jordan Valley, and a “basket of tools” that could include restricting the movements of West Bank leaders. If a Palestinian state gained legitimacy at the UN, even in its mildest form, Israel fears, it could be increasingly isolated, surrounded by neighbours who are less interested in maintaining peace. And according to WikiLeaks cables, it also fears it would open the way to prosecution on war crimes charges in the International Criminal Court. But Israel’s vigorous opposition to the statehood bid could also backfire, if its failure undermined Abbas and strengthened the hand of the Islamist Hamas faction. The U.S. is also caught in a poker game with diminishing returns. President Barack Obama is facing a bitter 2012 election, a hostile Congress and the alienation of those in the Jewish community who oppose the Palestinian statehood bid — and traditionally vote Democratic. A Security Council veto would cast a negative light on a policy long endorsed by Washington: to support the creation of a Palestinian state within pre-1967 boundaries. That would weaken American attempts to mediate a future peace process, and lower Obama’s already flagging popularity in Arab countries to which he promised a new start. As the key players prepare to head for New York next week, few are looking forward to the diplomatic fray. And few will emerge unscathed.